The Draw is Over, and the Battle Lines are Set

On Thursday CNN did a live drawing to pick the debate setup. CNN was very transparent, even a little overkill with several cameras on the person doing the drawing. Here is who will be in what debate

July 30th Williamson, Delaney, Hickenlooper, Ryan, Bullock, Klobuchar, O’Rourke, Buttigieg, Warren and Sanders

July 31st  Inslee, Gillibrand, Gabbard, Bennet, de Blasio, Booker, Yang, Castro, Harris and Biden

The first debate is mostly made up of moderates with the exceptions of Sanders and Warren. Looking at the second night, you can see more candidate diversity. The question is will Biden and Harris clash as they did in the first debate. Lastly will Booker also try to make a move against Biden.

Advertisements

Debate Lineup Set

The DNC has named the candidates who will be qualified for the debates on July 30, and 31 hosted by CNN in Detroit. There is only one new face on this board, and that is Montana Governor Steve Bullock. Steve Bullock is replacing Rep. Swalwell who got out of the race earlier this month. Now we know who will be in the debate, the question is now which debate. CNN will do a live drawing this Thursday to determine who will be in which debate. People might not think it, but who is in which debate can have big implications on candidate performance. For example, if Harris wasn’t in the debate with Biden he might have a better performance because Biden past views on busing wouldn’t have been brought up. This debate might also will be the last chance for the lower tier candidates, because the qualifications for the next debate are harder to reach.

Where the 2020 Democrats are From

*Please note these are the states that they hold or held public office in. For example, Joe Biden was born in Scranton Pennsylvania but he represented Delaware in the Senate. Maps created with “mapchart.net” https://mapchart.net/

With such a wide range of candidates in the democratic race for president, I decided to make a map to show what states they are from. There are 24 candidates ranging from 17 states, some of which were states were Trump won in 2016 like Steve Bullock from Montana and Buttigieg from Indiana.

Fundraising Frenzy

Today is the deadline for federal Candidates running for office to release their fundraising totals for the second quarter. Here’s some of the numbers we have so far. (Numbers are approximate)

1.Trump campaign and The RNC $108 million

2. Mayor Buttigieg $24.8 million

3. Former VP Biden $21.5 million

4. Sen. Warren $19.1 million

5. Sen. Sanders $18 million

6. Sen. Harris $12 million

7. Michael Bennet $3.5 Million

8. Jay Inslee $3 Million

9. Julián Castro $2.8 Million

10. Kirsten Gillibrand $2.3 Million

11. Steve Bullock $2 Million

Just looking at these numbers, you can see Trump has an enormous advantage. This giant war chest will allow him to buy plenty of ads and get his message out there, while the other party squabbles to find a candidate. Now looking at the democratic field, you see Mayor Buttigieg leading with almost 25 million. This is an impressive total for a mayor. Another surprise that I saw was that Warren was able to edge out Sanders by about a million dollars. Additionally, I expected Harris to do a little better, maybe around the fifteen dollar mark.

If you look lower down the list you see Bennet and Inslee doing respectively well, especially after their sub-par debate performances. Unlike the campaigns of Castro and Gillibrand who didn’t do very well in terms of fundraising. One thing to keep in mind is that fundraising in campaigns will be used to keep the campaign running. Usually when candidates drop out, it is because they don’t have the funds to keep going. Finally, understand that fundraising is only a part of how you track a candidates’ performance, polling, media coverage, and debate performance come into to play as well.

Biden slipping in California

The former Vice President is losing support in The Golden State. A new poll came out showing him in forth, compare that to the same poll two months ago where he was comfortably leading by seven points. His support plummeted from 30 points to 17. Harris and Warren are on the receiving end taking first and second place with the home state senator in first by one point. The state of California will hold its primary on Super Tuesday on March 3rd 2019. It holds a whopping 416 delegates.

The poll was taken by change research with a margin of error 2.5%

https://www.changeresearch.com/california-poll-july-9-11-2019

Where the Candidates Stand in Each State

I complied some polling data and used “mapchart.net” to put it in map form. Looking at this map, you see that Biden is leading in most of the states with the exceptions of Wisconsin and Minnesota. Expect this to fade as we get closer to the real primary, and as we watch more debates, and as more candidates drop out.

No big surprises on this map, Sanders is in second place nationally for now. These numbers are not set in stone right now, as we get more post-debate polling I expect Harris to start polling in second in some of theses states especially her home state of California and the southern states as well.

A little more candidate diversity on this map as you can see Harris is in third place in some pretty big state that hold a lot of delegates. To advance further, she will need to get her name out there, and have great debate performances like she had in June. Warren had a pretty good debate performance; she practically had the debate stage to herself. She was able to talk about her policies capture a lot of the liberal vote. I expect her to overtake Sanders for second place in some states.

I will be doing these articles regularly as more polling comes out.

Tom Steyer is in it to Win It

“Let the American people see the facts”

Tom Steyer

American Billionaire announced he will be seeking the 2020 Democratic Nomination for president. Tom Steyer is notorious for his television ads calling for President Trumps impeachment. He has pledged that he will spend $100 million dollars to capture his party’s nomination. We will have to wait and see how his candidacy affects the polls and who he take support away from. The one thing that is for certain is that he will won’t be able to qualify for the next two debates on July 30 and 31st hosted by CNN.

Winners and Losers

Democratic presidential candidate former vice president Joe Biden, center, speaks during the Democratic primary debate hosted by NBC News at the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Art, Thursday, June 27, 2019, in Miami, as from left, entrepreneur Andrew Yang, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, fSen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., listen. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

“I don’t think we should conduct foreign policy in our bathrobe at 5 in the morning.”

Amy Klobuchar

Winners

  1. Kamala Harris was one of the clear winners of the second debate. She made a bold move attacking the front-runners past rhetoric, and it paid off. She has seen a huge spike in the polls lately, taking support mostly away from Biden.
  2. Elizabeth Warren practically had the debate stage to herself in the first debate. She was able to use the spotlight on her and use it to her advantage unlike other front runners who I will mention later. As with Harris, Warren has also seen a spike in the polls mostly getting more support from the liberal wing of the party taking support away from Sanders.
  3. Pete Buttigieg walked into the debate with a mountain of turmoil. But he was able to get the upper hand and damper down the problems in South Bend. He needed to put this issue to bed and out of the media’s spotlight and he did for now

Losers

  1. Biden did not have a good month to say the least. He is seen as out of touch with the new Democratic Party. Having his past views on Busing and not being able to explain himself on the debate stage really hurt him
  2. Bernie Sanders who didn’t have that bad of a debate overall, but he still has lost support, mostly to Warren. Granted he still has a core of support who will never abandon him. He now faces a different challenge than 3 years ago were he didn’t have to worry about losing the liberal vote to Hillary Clinton instead he now has a lot more competitors to worry about some of which who are more liberal than him.

About Me

Hello fellow political junkies! I’m the Political Guru (aka political nerd). The reason I’m starting this blog is to give people a non-biased opinions about the politics in the USA. Througout my life I have always been facinated in the world of politics and government. From the senate chambers to the voting booths I promise that I will tell it how it is. -The Political Guru

Create your website at WordPress.com
Get started